A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
